The world's reactors burn ~69,000 tonnes of uranium a year. The West needs ~47,000 of it. Five plants exist at commercial-export scale — four Western, one Russian. Today four ship; Springfields restarts 2028. China makes another ~14,000 captively for its own fleet. By January 2028, the West has to cover its own.
Fig. 1 · capacity vs. demand · tU/yr · WNA Reference scenario, with bounds 2030–2040
Three Western plants closed or idled between 1992 and 2017 — Sequoyah, Springfields, Honeywell Metropolis — cutting capacity nearly in half. Demand fell post-Fukushima too as Japan's reactors went offline, but capacity fell faster. Russia (TENEX) sold the difference. The dashed red line marks January 2028, when the Russian Uranium Imports Act waivers expire and the West has to cover its own reactors. From "today" the demand line forks into High / Reference / Low forecasts (WNA Nuclear Fuel Report 2025) — Reference 2040 is ~84,000 tU/yr against committed Western capacity of ~53,000 tU/yr.
Fig. 2 · the front end, the back end, and the recycle loop. Modeled on the World Nuclear Association diagram.
Conversion is the chemistry step that turns mined yellowcake (U₃O₈) into the gas form (UF₆) that gets fed into centrifuges for enrichment. Five plants worldwide are licensed at commercial-export scale — four are shipping today, and Springfields restart targets 2028. Every number on this site sits at this one node. Walk the full cycle →
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The full nuclear fuel cycle, stage by stage. Mining through reprocessing, with conversion as the centerpiece.