fuel.jrand.net An atlas of the narrowest pipe in nuclear
Live scenario Baseline as of —
Scenarios
+ Build custom (v2)
Viewing year
2024
2035
2028 ±10% confidence through 2035
—
2028 global UF₆ output (tU/yr)
—
2028 Western capacity (tU/yr)
—
2028 Western shortfall (tU/yr)
—
Commercial-export plants
— Western · — restricted

Excludes captive (China ~14k tU/yr) and downstream-only sites (India, Brazil). Full list.

UF₆ conversion Commercial (open-market shipping — Cameco, Orano, ConverDyn) Captive (CNNC Lanzhou + Hengyang)
UF₆ state Operating Ramping Pre-FID / construction Sanctioned (Russia post-2022)
Context stages Mining Enrichment Multi-stage site (Lanzhou, Seversk — co-located conversion + enrichment)
Other markers conversion-stage variants + smaller sites
Stage carried by the marker; state colors apply to UF₆ conversion only — other-stage sites here are operating unless flagged otherwise. Pre-UF₆ intermediate (Malvési UF₄, Blind River UO₃) Smaller conversion (weapons-program, pilot, military-legacy — operating only)
Western capacity vs demand

The U-shape, recomputed live.

Fig. 2 · 1980 — 2040 · tU/yr · with WNA forecast cone past today